LAMPIRAN A.
PENGUJIAN HAUSMAN
Untuk menentukan model mana yang paling sesuai dengan tujuan studi ini, maka digunakan tahapan pemilihan penggunaan Metode Fixed Effect (FEM) ataukah Metode Random Effect (REM) dalam meregresi data panel sesuai dengan rekomendasi Nachrowi & Hardius (2006). Pemilihan pengunaan satu diantara kedua metode tersebut dilakukan dengan menggunakan uji Hausman. Hasil pengujian dengan menggunakan Uji Hausman (diproses melalui pemasukan syntax pada EViews) menunjukkan bahwa nilai statistik Hausman yang diperoleh dari hasil estimasi untuk determinan FDI adalah sebesar 4,990632; dan untuk determinan investasi portofolio adalah sebesar 12,53119. Selanjutnya nilai statistik Hausman tersebut dibandingkan dengan nilai tabel χ2. Nilai tabel χ2 untuk derajat bebas sebanyak 5 buah pada tingkat keyakinan 95% adalah 1,145476; maka dapat dikatakan bahwa pendekatan data panel yang harus digunakan dalam penelitian skripsi ini adalah pendekatan efek tetap karena hipotesis nol harus ditolak jika besar nilai statistik Hausman lebih besar dari nilai tabel χ2. B.
PENGUJIAN ASUMSI REGRESI LINEAR KLASIK
Dalam pemakaian model OLS diperlukan ketiga pengujian asumsi dasar ekonometrik untuk memastikan bahwa model yang akan diestimasi tersebut bersifat BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator). Pengujian pelanggaran asumsi dasar ekonometrik yang akan dilakukan adalah pengujian bahwa model tersebut tidak memiliki masalah multikolinearitas, heteroskedastisitas, dan otokorelasi. B.1 Pengujian Multikolinearitas
Hasil uji multikolinearitas pada model regresi menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat masalah multikolinearitas dalam model, hal ini dapat diketahui secara
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
eksplisit melalui matriks korelasi antar variabel independen yang bernilai kurang dari 0,8.59 Tabel B.1 berikut ini menyajikan matriks korelasi antar variabel independen. Tabel B.1 Matriks Korelasi
PDBR PDBR M0 PDBRAS TBR FXR
M0
PDBRAS
TBR
FXR
1 0.074231
1
-0.013762
0.432387
1
0.021332
-0.037390
-0.080345
1
-0.041335
0.260703
0.394568
-0.037425
1
Sumber: Hasil olahan EViews 4
B.2 Pengujian Heteroskedastisitas
Masalah heteroskedastisitas dapat dideteksi dengan melakukan uji GoldfeldQuandt, dengan hipotesis sebagai berikut: H0
:
Tidak terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas
H1
:
Terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas
Dengan kriteria penolakan hipotesis, tolak H0 bila nilai λ lebih besar daripada nilai kritis F pada tingkat kepercayaan 95%. Dari uji Goldfeld-Quandt tersebut, didapat hasil sebagai berikut: 1. Variabel Dependen: Investasi Asing Langsung
λ=
SSE 2 / df MSE 2 1,873765 = = = 1,420577 MSE1 / df MSE1 1,319017
2. Variabel Dependen: Investasi Portofolio
λ=
59
SSE 2 / df MSE 2 0,988310 = = = 3,073721 MSE1 / df MSE1 0,321535
Sesuai dengan rule of thumbs 0,8.
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
Hasil uji heteroskedastisitas di atas menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas pada regresi investasi asing langsung bila melihat nilai λ = 1,420577 yang kurang dari nilai F kritis 2,69 pada tingkat keyakinan 95%. Hasil uji heteroskedastisitas
tersebut
juga
menunjukkan
bahwa
terdapat
masalah
heteroskedastisitas pada regresi investasi portofolio bila melihat nilai λ = 3,073721 yang lebih besar dari nilai F kritis 2,69 pada tingkat keyakinan 95%. Dari pengujian asumsi regresi linear klasik, diperoleh hasil bahwa pada terdapat pelanggaran asumsi homoskedastisitas pada regresi determinan investasi portofolio, sehingga perlu dilakukan treatment White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance. B.3 Pengujian Otokorelasi
Uji otokorelasi dapat dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai Durbin-Watson statistik dengan batas bawah (dL) dan batas atas (dU) tabel DW. Dari pengujian otokorelasi, didapatkan hasil bahwa tidak terdapat masalah otokorelasi pada regresi determinan investasi asing langsung di negara berkembang G-20 karena nilai DW statistik sebesar 1,880104 berada diantara batas atas (dU) dan 4- dU. Pada regresi investasi portofolio, diperoleh nilai DW statistik sebesar 1,879334 yang berarti terletak setelah batas atas (1,786) dan sebelum 4-dU. Dengan begitu dapat disimpulkan bahwa pada regresi investasi portofolio bebas dari masalah otokorelasi.
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
C.
DATA MENTAH (dalam miliar USD) Periode Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003
IAL_1 -0,502 0,367 -0,144 0,038 0,294 -0,536 -0,698 -0,925 -1,439 -0,428 -0,943 -1,686 -1,212 -0,996 -0,558 -0,159 -0,479 0,235 0,289 0,187 -0,35 0,273 -0,193 -0,237
IAL_2 1,45 1,7685 2,4604 1,6118 4,4632 14,6643 3,1185 1,7416 2,2719 1,1821 6,2585 0,7058 1,8544 0,9503 0,4301 -1,0686 1,4252 0,3662 -0,9244 1,282 0,1847 -0,1227 -0,2077 1,7976
IAL_3 0,5052 1,1661 2,1617 1,5793 1,4264 1,8102 2,7305 3,3663 1,5049 2,9452 2,0264 2,8069 0,9023 1,5078 0,7953 0,3223 0,6894 0,1297 0,3598 1,2134 0,1713 0,5105 0,6112 2,2325
IAL_4 2,615 3,4699 3,2775 3,3021 3,5038 3,3816 3,0141 3,9353 4,4618 4,76 3,0211 5,7719 3,5165 5,1228 16,2824 4,8479 4,9908 6,2326 6,0592 6,4031 3,833 5,4258 2,8901 4,288
IAL_5 0,0818 0,2343 0,309 -0,0748 0,4156 0,3332 0,3352 0,4194 0,7767 0,0987 0,2067 -0,1133 0,3248 6,5594 0,4302 -0,044 0,8936 0,461 0,2901 -0,1649 0,033 0,0575 0,2436 0,4491
IAL_6 4,347 6,57 10,552 10,444 7,622 5,667 8,98 6,307 6,9652 6,4403 9,2256 10,1482 4,7376 5,1628 5,3809 7,1761 4,7186 4,9223 3,0485 3,9008 1,9771 1,5234 2,9662 3,6769
IAL_7 0,6226 0,4501 0,4109 1,2777 0,642 0,7513 0,6591 1,257 0,536 0,4685 0,6612 1,0485 0,6169 0,7108 0,9026 0,5179 0,717 0,9279 0,8662 0,8662 3,7618 2,8361 2,0027 -0,6424
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
IAL_8 0,121 0,235 0,249 0,335 0,203 0,273 0,099 0,208 0,507 0,322 -0,365 0,518 1,874 0,155 0,54 0,783 0,113 0,407 0,222 0,391 0,324 0,24 0,528 0,659
Periode Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
IAL_1 -0,012 -0,869 -0,331 -0,3 0,207 3,132 0,878 1,055 0,681 0,572 -0,273 1,232 -0,246 1,426 0,764 0,309 -0,27 0,605 0,405 1,739
IAL_2 1,5167 0,92 1,0114 0,6767 1,294 2,1602 0,7473 1,0637 1,753 1,7633 1,5418 0,4792 1,1271 1,0998 1,8917 2,3546 3,483 2,2358 1,3467 0,9132
IAL_3 0,4167 3,8732 1,5835 3,3728 0,8065 2,3573 1,0906 2,0541 0,5807 1,6821 -1,4904 2,814 1,1068 0,0745 0,0085 0,389 -0,6742 -0,2119 1,6328 1,4536
IAL_4 9,0369 4,0585 3,0854 7,4672 6,1215 5,7905 5,1605 4,726 6,9534 5,5586 2,3439 4,2846 9,9585 5,5172 5,4746 6,2165 5,9217 6,8804 3,5942 2,193
IAL_5 1,2702 -0,2428 0,3145 -0,6405 0,2179 0,7867 4,5911 0,9264 1,4945 0,6033 -0,3611 -1,9204 0,4218 1,5622 1,8321 1,9208 5,6322 0,7934 2,8792 0,3271
IAL_6 2,7192 1,3262 8,3353 5,7851 3,4427 5,0712 3,1506 3,4019 3,9575 3,4277 4,5204 6,8766 6,5655 14,2867 7,1295 6,6032 8,7993 7,9105 14,1455 14,205
IAL_7 5,0989 0,1142 1,3141 8,9172 4,7219 7,4972 5,2916 -4,6249 7,7324 8,0866 10,0147 3,8678 18,4832 11,1481 8,7153 16,7267 20,537 22,6786 16,7994 10,3051
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
IAL_8 0,706 0,704 0,839 0,536 0,775 0,709 2,643 5,904 1,204 8,029 3,898 6,858 9,437 3,083 4,615 5,06 4,509 5,495 3,854 4,329
Periode Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003
IP_1 -3,548 1,84 0,107 -0,277 -1,994 0,771 -0,604 0,035 -0,024 -1,107 -0,386 -0,394 -0,443 -0,09 0,064 0,224 0,088 0,29 0,36 0,485 -0,189 0,906 0,121 1,414
IP_2 3,9987 3,968 2,7791 -0,0524 0,6726 -7,6713 -0,2249 2,4441 2,7259 1,275 -3,7103 -1,622 -2,6603 -1,6317 -2,9944 -2,4288 -2,255 -1,2021 0,1307 -1,7908 -1,9879 -2,115 -0,565 -2,995
IP_3 2,9879 2,0279 -3,5957 -0,6453 1,3384 3,9049 -2,0985 4,7631 8,6378 2,0326 0,9883 1,0383 2,0159 3,3637 0,3328 6,5149 -1,2617 -1,37 1,9268 6,0829 0,1295 5,6018 8,4116 8,5473
IP_4 3,1296 -0,2817 -3,0949 1,274 1,8158 5,1803 3,578 1,4307 3,6959 0,5928 -0,28 -5,143 3,3306 0,9409 -0,1891 -0,448 2,4992 -3,5191 -1,068 1,0847 3,1212 -0,7623 -1,896 3,0952
IP_5 5,3341 4,3219 -0,1966 0,4098 1,5789 4,2673 4,9022 3,0509 1,0825 -0,2038 1,1474 -0,2188 0,453 -3,3853 -0,0307 -0,0081 0,3791 1,5013 -1,2344 -0,1887 -0,5311 2,8737 -0,5732 -0,9078
IP_6 12,442 9,512 -6,088 3,147 -7,021 5,42 0,231 4,912 3,3501 1,2522 3,7187 0,3297 2,8815 -0,7939 2,1582 -3,3737 2,6604 -1,4241 -3,7235 -2,3102 1,08 2,9152 -0,3452 1,4787
IP_7 4,3368 3,9869 -1,0645 -0,9659 0,127 -0,372 -0,5753 -1,0616 0,5832 -1,5305 -11,4261 -0,435 -0,1222 0,0022 -0,361 -0,2491 0,5122 0,6284 2,4277 2,4277 -1,7859 -2,7334 -1,1479 3,3386
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
IP_8 1,238 1,055 -6,478 -0,904 1,28 0,133 -0,052 2,827 1,989 1,945 2,702 -5,021 -2,846 -0,437 -0,606 0,162 1,173 -0,471 -0,223 1,024 -0,146 1,455 2,211 0,331
Periode Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
IP_1 1,748 -0,076 0,98 1,757 0,395 -0,805 1,738 2,862 3,712 -1,057 0,207 1,312 2,491 3,81 0,465 -1,2 1,984 4,188 -0,074 -4,345
IP_2 -3,8157 -1,0995 -2,2244 -2,1993 -3,1046 -0,7636 0,9229 1,2138 4,4363 1,1821 0,5048 1,7982 3,0049 5,0985 -1,7824 0,7768 -0,3995 -1,7991 -2,1888 -2,2065
IP_3 12,1958 2,1693 3,4821 0,5276 2,0007 1,5394 4,9008 5,6726 7,9955 -2,6064 -1,7576 4,4244 5,2476 12,9975 -1,5889 13,318 -9,8718 6,6634 -17,8547 -17,3931
IP_4 2,7089 -3,2821 3,3548 2,4561 5,3377 1,4715 1,1496 0,4067 3,3347 1,3992 -8,9563 5,518 1,3618 5,0451 2,722 5,6439 4,2362 6,7765 -0,0932 -5,3051
IP_5 0,723 2,3902 0,4604 3,7356 1,2715 3,7001 1,3051 -0,5585 8,6498 5,5845 3,3188 4,3056 3,9751 5,9263 3,3902 0,3894 -2,707 2,2101 -0,98 -5,7661
IP_6 2,4541 -5,6111 -0,5077 -0,3309 5,8498 -0,3051 0,2986 0,8121 6,2639 -8,0172 3,4452 7,3587 9,0807 15,0985 11,7294 12,1958 6,1961 7,0866 3,6841 -17,7338
IP_7 3,7956 0,0282 -0,2743 0,8931 0,461 4,0593 -2,5082 -2,7248 1,9693 -0,2688 10,3129 -2,5586 -0,2342 11,1037 -2,5324 8,5171 -4,5151 5,2304 -10,7398 -16,1238
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
IP_8 2,659 1,023 1,347 4,382 4,934 2,972 2,397 4,367 3,885 -4,419 5,383 6,553 5,154 1,893 -0,63 -3,637 -0,822 2,817 -0,067 -5,43
Periode Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003
PDBR_1 0,6767 0,336 0,4862 0,6244 0,6012 0,7682 0,6396 0,7392 0,7162 0,622 0,6356 0,5808 0,5571 0,4989 0,6038 0,5446 0,6053 0,6807 0,6817 0,6637 0,6879 0,7547 0,7661 0,7304
PDBR_2 4,7447 5,2599 5,1221 4,9991 4,6281 5,0016 4,8629 4,9519 4,6199 4,9817 4,8332 4,8563 4,5264 4,9734 4,5949 4,3459 1,283 1,1465 1,123 1,2636 1,3618 1,6845 1,5933 1,6136
PDBR_3 0,8053 0,8752 0,8634 1,1257 0,9609 1,1389 1,0965 1,3205 1,206 1,293 1,2946 1,2397 1,0399 1,1522 1,1401 1,2486 1,1093 1,3318 1,2983 1,486 1,2165 1,3707 1,4173 1,5386
PDBR_4 8,7888 8,4164 7,3081 7,932 8,0355 8,2995 8,2421 8,6658 8,8961 8,4923 8,7754 9,019 8,7781 9,3442 8,5548 9,3148 9,0599 8,628 8,151 8,4223 7,7461 8,1604 7,8216 7,8535
PDBR_5 2,3738 2,04 2,0335 2,0398 1,949 2,0146 2,0464 2,0192 1,9152 1,8729 1,7651 1,7067 1,6222 1,6202 1,4554 1,0886 1,1716 1,3178 1,2965 1,5945 1,7514 1,8462 2,0264 2,1282
PDBR_6 3,432 3,6436 3,5726 3,5476 2,3563 2,4654 2,2203 2,5528 2,3872 2,4868 2,442 2,4064 2,0713 2,0203 1,7064 2,0521 1,9684 1,7333 1,247 1,3994 1,3643 1,6678 1,6642 1,7749
PDBR_7 5,322 5,3672 2,2407 1,6383 1,3165 1,4136 1,5993 1,4081 1,2649 1,3455 1,5871 1,4725 1,3111 1,3628 1,5887 1,438 1,2569 1,3172 1,5416 1,4478 1,346 1,4871 1,6756 1,7301
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
PDBR_8 4,5192 4,4518 5,2694 4,1286 2,8108 2,7665 3,0214 2,3608 1,8511 1,9986 2,258 2,0157 1,0808 0,9235 0,9077 0,8439 0,8272 0,7848 0,9048 0,8271 0,7034 0,9096 1,1251 1,0242
Periode Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003
PDBR_1 0,7429 0,6933 0,7324 0,7132 0,7131 0,7115 0,6895 0,7084 0,7831 0,7797 0,8148 0,8188 0,8264 0,8541 0,8778 0,83 0,8686 0,8921 0,91 0,7509 1,3643 1,6678 1,6642 1,7749
PDBR_2 1,5631 1,6894 1,6764 1,7311 1,6544 1,9112 1,8758 1,854 1,7026 1,9256 1,9115 1,9943 1,8273 2,0873 2,0495 2,1152 1,9403 2,3014 2,2023 2,0214 1,346 1,4871 1,6756 1,7301
PDBR_3 1,4032 1,4965 1,4811 1,8316 1,63 1,7437 1,717 1,9775 2,1868 2,3682 2,4086 2,6055 2,3587 2,5837 2,6131 2,7347 2,3632 2,3888 2,0428 1,9635 0,7034 0,9096 1,1251 1,0242
PDBR_4 7,7457 7,7718 7,8195 8,1846 7,8034 8,4879 8,507 8,8607 8,5418 8,5011 8,8111 9,1295 8,6968 9,1832 9,1987 9,4844 9,2413 9,9856 9,4695 7,487 8,1185 9,3046 9,6452 11,1682
PDBR_5 2,2517 2,3243 2,2991 2,6574 2,4248 2,3047 2,4392 2,4765 2,561 2,2497 2,1009 2,3767 2,3077 2,3826 2,493 2,5482 2,1508 2,2571 2,1339 1,8884 5,8128 7,0825 7,7786 9,1734
PDBR_6 1,6894 1,692 1,813 2,0301 1,9029 2,2822 2,4288 2,4066 2,4358 2,5816 2,6673 2,839 2,7868 3,1295 3,2886 3,54 3,4184 4,0435 3,3909 2,7477 15,0171 15,5074 16,6408 16,8633
PDBR_7 1,586 1,6756 1,8821 1,9595 1,7122 1,8022 2,0493 2,0307 1,8293 2,0532 2,351 2,4085 2,0989 2,3259 2,7178 2,8161 2,5237 2,7518 2,8469 2,381 6,6962 7,0251 8,1981 9,3453
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
PDBR_8 1,0035 0,9645 1,124 1,1532 1,0599 1,1573 1,3496 1,2609 1,1267 1,079 1,2861 1,2728 1,184 1,3478 1,6489 1,5959 1,3425 1,4827 1,6323 1,1496 19,6977 22,2339 19,1987 25,3494
Periode Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003
M0_1 4,4416 2,7874 4,1109 5,0902 4,9423 6,4477 5,3435 7,2104 6,6012 6,0861 6,3075 6,5463 5,7429 5,5583 7,0455 7,3406 7,2207 8,2443 8,0677 9,0223 8,1185 9,3046 9,6452 11,1682
M0_2 11,8912 12,2349 11,7696 13,5097 11,8993 11,5939 11,6151 13,7429 11,4386 11,4109 11,3759 12,5775 11,3545 10,9179 9,1519 9,0858 4,1392 3,4637 3,5056 4,9486 5,8128 7,0825 7,7786 9,1734
M0_3 9,1014 8,8648 9,6257 11,3542 10,4403 11,0961 11,9317 17,113 13,1108 12,7925 13,7863 13,947 11,9979 12,2089 15,5816 14,2383 13,6368 14,9863 15,8389 16,7451 15,0171 15,5074 16,6408 16,8633
M0_4 11,2287 10,9707 9,8863 13,3328 13,0987 12,8552 13,6174 19,8352 16,5703 16,6297 17,154 21,8281 18,464 19,9468 19,1257 24,6743 23,955 21,1897 20,7534 25,5939 22,0458 22,9006 21,8448 27,0215
M0_5 5,9767 5,0939 5,2491 5,6673 5,4039 5,4271 5,8301 6,6266 5,4839 5,286 5,094 5,6862 4,824 4,93 4,7358 4,0329 4,2934 4,8753 4,9872 6,4759 6,6962 7,0251 8,1981 9,3453
M0_6 26,3628 32,1731 26,9923 32,4186 21,6316 18,7582 18,7201 27,0831 22,3842 17,9613 20,3598 24,3968 19,1448 18,2171 17,0313 22,9591 21,0327 17,8269 15,6056 20,7508 19,6977 22,2339 19,1987 25,3494
M0_7 60,3723 59,858 22,6296 18,8604 7,5296 7,9026 8,6417 8,0654 8,6695 9,7221 11,9676 12,5201 13,7578 14,5654 16,6882 17,5669 17,7601 20,5325 21,2523 24,0132 23,8833 30,2158 31,2659 38,9428
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
M0_8 0,3582 0,3551 0,4314 0,3931 0,42 0,3557 0,3959 0,3824 0,3805 0,4163 0,4483 0,4885 0,3129 0,3182 0,3077 0,3459 0,4279 0,3887 0,412 0,4671 0,4752 0,6161 0,7195 0,8041
Periode Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
M0_1 10,1177 10,3409 10,8263 11,7361 10,3738 10,8974 11,127 12,6135 12,3815 13,2795 14,0407 16,7022 14,1817 16,1685 17,5062 19,4253 17,8593 20,4921 23,7583 19,155
M0_2 9,0504 9,346 9,5223 11,447 11,0829 12,263 12,9596 14,5297 13,7213 14,5854 15,1505 17,6896 17,2697 18,7208 18,8797 21,4339 20,6298 22,1914 21,1578 21,5844
M0_3 16,6597 16,4066 19,2871 20,0673 19,6521 19,3446 20,6389 21,7075 22,4517 22,4695 24,7139 24,977 24,2275 23,9741 27,3505 25,5712 23,5724 22,2177 20,1016 20,1055
M0_4 23,9757 24,4354 24,6077 30,1983 27,612 28,9731 28,8009 35,2611 32,2385 32,3824 33,3303 41,34 36,9825 37,6149 37,7545 45,5305 41,857 43,5249 42,4963 42,6599
M0_5 9,5849 9,8334 10,4509 12,6887 11,5549 10,9351 11,7223 12,5776 12,9502 11,4897 11,3211 13,7659 12,9315 13,6464 14,348 16,2974 13,3389 14,0235 13,7671 12,858
M0_6 21,708 21,8857 24,8286 33,4386 29,3676 33,4075 36,0609 43,2698 40,8617 43,7416 46,182 56,6639 52,3205 60,0415 65,4698 82,8111 73,7156 83,4599 71,5631 63,1581
M0_7 40,9158 43,9629 44,2775 55,3093 53,2495 57,573 61,0792 69,8077 69,4751 82,4764 89,6493 105,7761 105,385 117,2752 129,0978 150,8299 147,7955 158,7949 152,6871 129,1609
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
M0_8 0,9462 0,879 0,9355 1,0354 1,0667 1,2097 1,3368 1,4517 1,4634 1,4274 1,5477 1,7549 1,5858 1,8264 2,1315 2,3193 2,0819 2,4043 2,5608 2,1639
Periode
PDBRAS
TBR
Periode
PDBRAS
TBR
Q1 1998
89,362
0,051
Q3 2003
103,987
0,003
Q2 1998
89,953
0,050
Q4 2003
104,669
0,001
Q3 1998
90,989
0,049
Q1 2004
105,436
-0,014
Q4 1998
92,371
0,043
Q2 2004
106,343
-0,021
Q1 1999
93,155
0,061
Q3 2004
107,287
0,006
Q2 1999
93,926
0,035
Q4 2004
107,964
0,002
Q3 1999
95,022
0,033
Q1 2005
108,759
0,018
Q4 1999
96,711
0,050
Q2 2005
109,461
0,015
Q1 2000
96,956
0,050
Q3 2005
110,500
0,008
Q2 2000
98,479
0,047
Q4 2005
110,861
0,004
Q3 2000
98,366
0,057
Q1 2006
112,172
0,063
Q4 2000
98,877
0,056
Q2 2006
112,916
0,037
Q1 2001
98,755
0,039
Q3 2006
113,141
0,049
Q2 2001
99,058
0,057
Q4 2006
113,564
0,077
Q3 2001
98,711
0,064
Q1 2007
113,579
0,041
Q4 2001
99,101
0,059
Q2 2007
114,914
0,013
Q1 2002
99,773
0,025
Q3 2007
116,258
0,047
Q2 2002
100,316
0,003
Q4 2007
116,207
0,016
Q3 2002
100,907
0,012
Q1 2008
116,460
0,022
Q4 2002
100,957
0,003
Q2 2008
117,403
0,016
Q1 2003
101,260
-0,031
Q3 2008
132,390
0,017
Q2 2003
102,127
0,020
Q4 2008
130,239
0,004
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
Periode Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003
FXR_1 15,3061 17,5213 19,2754 22,4014 24,9444 26,1184 25,8304 26,2450 28,2632 28,3544 28,4879 28,2804 27,8990 27,7644 27,9610 27,0475 26,9662 28,1273 28,8078 30,7543 31,3508 32,7177 32,6153 34,7424
FXR_2 20,9618 22,4922 23,8932 24,4878 24,3205 22,8913 21,7622 26,1143 24,5635 25,6486 24,8338 24,4144 21,6518 20,7805 20,1701 14,5424 12,8128 9,6212 9,3801 10,3951 9,4394 11,1640 12,2219 13,1448
FXR_3 29,6766 40,7641 46,9042 51,9630 57,0885 61,6302 65,1107 73,7003 83,2990 89,8283 92,1896 95,8551 94,1087 93,9111 99,7437 102,4870 105,7590 111,9340 116,1050 120,8110 123,2170 130,8860 140,7520 154,5090
FXR_4 29,5383 30,1633 28,6260 31,4613 30,7595 30,8980 31,7770 30,9920 35,3250 31,9740 33,7310 35,1420 39,8770 40,4050 42,4400 44,3840 45,8440 45,1470 45,9940 49,8950 53,0658 54,1953 53,6222 57,7399
FXR_5 5,4473 4,5606 3,9612 4,1713 4,1259 4,5778 5,1891 6,0653 6,0809 6,2165 5,8257 5,7927 5,8734 5,7810 5,6973 5,7651 5,7177 5,6725 5,6772 5,6008 5,7972 6,1169 6,1874 6,1637
FXR_6 67,1500 69,6140 43,9000 42,5780 31,2132 39,0704 41,0483 35,2693 38,1697 27,1305 30,3818 32,4336 34,1391 37,0111 39,6885 35,5525 36,3773 41,6350 37,7570 37,1873 41,6908 47,2072 52,1974 48,8443
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
FXR_7 11,9061 10,9060 8,8388 7,8000 6,6764 8,1874 6,6322 8,4554 11,4549 17,6817 21,4722 24,2626 25,9377 31,2335 34,0399 32,5381 33,1737 39,8381 41,8782 44,0508 51,7883 60,6808 58,3239 73,1721
FXR_8 21,2190 26,4100 21,5370 19,4420 21,2190 21,4700 23,4950 23,1910 22,9590 24,5910 24,1070 22,3130 18,4160 16,4390 18,8390 18,7330 20,3280 22,2380 25,0110 26,8840 26,7470 28,9780 34,2350 33,7930
Periode Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
FXR_1 35,8505 33,3852 33,2865 34,7241 34,4851 32,3663 28,6383 32,9255 38,1147 38,2563 40,5914 40,8660 45,4335 49,1713 50,9200 54,7373 56,5478 57,0185 54,7576 49,3389
FXR_2 13,3784 15,8100 16,5234 18,0075 17,1199 20,0096 19,5966 22,7420 20,2476 24,1274 26,4838 30,4209 35,1665 41,4904 41,0719 44,1751 48,2786 45,3266 45,0174 44,3604
FXR_3 162,7130 166,1880 173,6020 198,1750 204,6260 204,1950 205,9940 209,9680 216,9360 225,3130 227,8190 238,3880 243,3860 250,2230 256,8480 261,7710 263,7780 257,5840 239,1760 200,4790
FXR_4 60,3374 59,1650 60,9229 62,7779 62,6686 64,1877 68,5692 73,0146 75,0677 83,9606 82,4753 75,4477 74,9645 76,9622 81,2628 86,3094 90,1615 93,0415 97,8433 93,9941
FXR_5 7,9407 9,4480 10,3406 12,7943 13,8109 16,5919 17,3035 18,2596 20,2849 21,1806 21,8983 22,7201 23,5108 25,1551 27,1847 29,2342 30,2465 30,7361 30,4827 30,2378
FXR_6 51,1464 49,3710 49,0461 52,4576 61,4905 59,3764 56,4884 53,2164 59,1760 61,9898 72,7324 85,1478 108,8140 146,3970 162,1580 179,4310 194,2230 199,8210 205,5380 192,8430
Keterangan: IAL IP PDBR M0 PDBRAS TBR FXR
= = = = = = =
Investasi Asing Langsung Investasi Portofolio Produk Domestik Bruto Riil Uang Kartal PDB Riil Amerika Serikat Treasury Bills Rate Amerika Serikat Cadangan Devisa
_1 _2 _3 _4 _5 _6 _7 _8
= = = = = = = =
Indonesia Argentina Korea Selatan Meksiko Afrika Selatan Brazil Rusia Turki
Pengaruh variabel-variabel..., Resti Maheralia, FE UI, 2009
FXR_7 79,6359 84,4607 91,3251 120,8050 133,6460 147,7670 155,7770 175,6900 198,4730 242,9390 258,4700 295,2770 330,0430 397,0320 414,8950 466,3760 498,4990 554,7940 542,4700 411,4940
FXR_8 32,9570 33,8070 34,8150 35,4800 38,0430 40,0270 41,7410 50,4020 58,3640 57,2379 58,3771 60,7100 67,2420 68,1760 71,5780 73,1558 76,3210 75,7024 76,4277 70,2310